Better late than never: Riverina's May rain might save thirsty canola crop

The Bureau of Meteorology is predicting 10mm of rainfall in Wagga beginning on Thursday evening and into Friday morning on May 31.

The rainfall is much anticipated by Riverina farmers, many of whom sowed canola and wheat paddocks waiting for the seasonal May rain that never came.

"We're optimistic, we still went ahead and sowed a couple of little paddocks of canola," Ladysmith farmer Nat Leirsch said.

"There was a little bit of moisture in it ... you can't sit too hard on your hands and wait around."

Wagga recorded 1.2mm in May, the monthly average is 50.6mm.

Mr Liersch finished sowing earlier in the month and hopes that enough rain will arrive this week to germinate the seeds.

"Even if we got 10mm, any seed that's in the ground will get a germination," he said.

"Anything that's up and struggling will hopefully get going again."

The sheep and crop farmer said he hasn't seen a dry spell like this since 2020 and if the ground doesn't get enough rain this week, Mr Liersch believes some crops could fail.

"I think this weather event that's on the horizon, if we miss that, it will be a real crunch or pinch," he said.

"Everyone will be tightening their belts, I think, if that happens."

Unless he gets rain, Mr Liersch said he will also continue buying grain for his sheep into the lambing season in July.

It's a similar story for wheat, canola and sheep farmer Jimmy Kelleher in Brocklesby, 120 kilometres southwest of Wagga.

Mr Kelleher sowed wheat and canola during April when there was slightly below-average rainfall.

Some of the crops germinated but he said they have come up in patches due to no rain.

"We're a bit nervous, a little bit anxious for some rain," he said.

Mr Kelleher hasn't started buying sheep feed yet, but expects to run out in a couple of months, if there's no significant rain.

"We know it's going to rain at some point and when it does it will be a big relief for everybody," he said.

"It's not a matter of if, but when."

Senior lecturer in crop science at CSU Dr Felicity Harris noted that autumn rainfall has been lower in 2024 than the last few seasons.

But she said growers have sown crops in a "timely manner" which have allowed crops to be established on time.

"Whilst surface soil moisture is limited, most crops have good stored moisture at depth so rain predicted later this week will be very timely," Dr Harris said.

"Some later sown crops have varied establishment with marginal seedbed moisture, however, rainfall forecast this week combined with warm soil temperatures will help buffer this."

The Bureau expects the rain to last for 12 hours from Thursday evening until Friday morning.

In some parts of the region 20 - 25mm is expected to fall.

"We'll start to see some rain pushing in late on Thursday, Friday is the main day, mainly in the morning," Daniel Hayes from the Bureau of Meteorology said.

Any rain that falls after 9am on May 31 will be counted as June rainfall.

Showers may linger over the weekend, but Mr Hayes said not to expect a significant amount.

While winter is not looking wet, the Bureau is expecting rain to pick up in spring.

"Southern inland areas continuing to be pretty dry, looking at the winter outlook," Mr Hayes said.

"As we head into that spring period, things look to improve a little bit with the spring rainfalls.